Hand analysis – I put you on quads

Today we’re gonna take a look at a hand I played on 8/16 the other day. I marked the hand, cause I really didn’t know if I should put in the river cap or not. Honestly, I was and (pre-analysis) still am pretty sure capping would be overplaying, or at least counting on him overplaying his hand, but putting your opponent on exactly 1 combo is so rare, it basically always should be checked afterwards.

Full Tilt Poker $8/$16 Limit Hold’em – 5 players
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

Pre Flop: (1.5 SB) Hero is SB with T of spades T of hearts
3 folds, Hero raises, BB 3-bets, Hero calls

Flop: (6 SB) 5 of hearts 2 of clubs T of diamonds (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets, Hero raises, BB calls

Turn: (5 BB) 2 of hearts (2 players)
Hero bets, BB raises, Hero 3-bets, BB caps!, Hero calls

River: (13 BB) 7 of spades (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets, Hero raises, BB 3-bets, Hero calls

Final Pot: 19 BB

Ok, so Villain is a regular, who is not as loose as the average bear, but more aggressive pre. Given that, I’ll assume his 3bet range from BB is the same as mine. You can play around with it if you like, but I believe the result will be conclusive enough (though I haven’t done any calcs yet yet).

So what we’re going to do is just build a raising war on valuerange vs valuerange (if it’s not clear for you, why we don’t include bluffs, think about it for a bit). Also, we’re gonna run 2 sims, first we take a looser, more optimistic perspective, and say we both spew against one another with 50% equity. In the second one we’ll use the more conservative 66% equity measurement. That will give us a range of ranges, and we can nicely see the best and worst outcomes.

So the method will be: we’re gonna set up both ranges in Combonator, then we’re gonna use Equilab’s required equity function, to narrow these valueranges.

Hero’s preflop range: 22+, A2s+, A2o+, K2s+, K2o+, Q2s+, Q4o+, J4s+, J5o+, T5s+, T6o+, 95s+, 96o+, 85s+, 86o+, 74s+, 75o+, 64s+, 65o, 53s+, 54o, 43s

Villain’s 3bet range: 22+, A2s+, A7o+, K6s+, KTo+, Q8s+, QJo, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, 87s, 76s

Villain’s flop cbet range remains the same, he never checks back this flop.

Hero’s check/raising range: every 5x or better, namely: 55+, 22, ATs, A5s, ATo, A5o, KTs, K5s, KTo, K5o, QTs, Q5s, QTo, Q5o, JTs, J5s, JTo, J5o, T5s+, T6o+, 95s, 85s, 75s, 75o, 65s, 65o, 53s+, 54o

Now if you run the numbers, you’ll get a much wider raising range: AJ hi or better, but because of balance reasons I’d stick to this flop raising range. Here on, the numbers rule.

Let’s assume Villain never 3bets the flop, so on this turn his raising range is: every top pair or better (TT+, 55, 22, A2, KT+, JTs+, T8s+). This really nicely illustrates another concept I always talk about, but more on that some other time maybe.

Our turn 3betting range against this range: AhTh, JJ+ (funny, it gives us a pair+draw, but whatever). Namely: TT+, 55, 22, AhTh
His turn capping range therefore should be: AA, trips+. AA, TT, 55, 22, A2
His river betting range is the same obviously, so my raising range is: full house+. TT, 55, 22
His river 3betting range is: TT, 22 – given he has no TT in his range in this exact case, by my little “default” game I should be beat here 100% of the time.

Let’s run the game with 66% required equity. I’m not gonna explain so detailed now, just the ranges…

Villain’s turn raise: JT+, every Tx with a flushdraw.
My 3bet range: KK+
His cap range: 55+
My river c/r range: TT+
His river 3betting range: 22

So we can see, that in any case, we can put him on one exact combination: quads. Of course, we have to assume he’d play this way against us, but from a midstakes regular I wouldn’t expect anything different. He tabled 55.

3 thoughts on “Hand analysis – I put you on quads

  1. I’m capping every time. The rare times he tables quads will not hurt us as much as the many, many times we make that extra big bet on the river and he tables less than us.

  2. Pingback: Hand analysis – I put you on quads – Part 2 | Madorjan's Poker&Life blog

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